Research Topics in Agricultural and Applied Economics

Author(s): Atsalakis S. George, Parasyri G. Maria and Zopounidis D. Constantinos

DOI: 10.2174/978160805263911203010003

Milk Production Forecasting by a Neuro-Fuzzy Model

Pp: 3-11 (9)

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Abstract

SHS investigation development is considered from the geographical and historical viewpoint. 3 stages are described. Within Stage 1 the work was carried out in the Department of the Institute of Chemical Physics in Chernogolovka where the scientific discovery had been made. At Stage 2 the interest to SHS arose in different cities and towns of the former USSR. Within Stage 3 SHS entered the international scene. Now SHS processes and products are being studied in more than 50 countries.

Abstract

Many fields are increasingly applying Neuro-fuzzy techniques such as in model identification and forecasting of linear and non-linear systems. This chapter presents a neuro-fuzzy model for forecasting milk production of two producers. The model utilizes a time series of daily data. The milk forecasting model is based on Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). ANFIS uses a hybrid learning technique that combines the least-squares method and the back propagation gradient descent method to estimate the optimal milk forecast parameters. The results indicate the superiority of ANFIS model when compared with two conventional models: an Autoregressive (AR) and an Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA).

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