ARIMA Model on GST – A Predictive Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted a multi-sectoral impact on omic activities around the globe and is considered as the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression. Demand and supply disruptions have acutely affected trade and commerce. A downfall of global trade has been pointed out by WTO. Indirect taxes constitute an important source of development funds for developing economies. The implementation of GST has brought landmark gains in consolidating indirect taxes and thereby reducing the cascading effect of taxes. GST revenues have fluctuated during the pandemic period. Considering the significance of the revenue to the economy, an attempt has been made to predict GST revenue using ARIMA analysis. The prediction results indicate an optimistic growth in GST revenues which along with the efforts of the Government towards liberalization of GST norms and revision of tax slabs is expected to provide the economy with the essential boost to revive and revitalize the Indian economy.