Moving From COVID-19 Mathematical Models to Vaccine Design: Theory, Practice and Experiences

Author(s): Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez * .

DOI: 10.2174/9789815051902122010010

Modelling Epidemics: a Perspective on Mathematical Models and Their Use

Pp: 207-237 (31)

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  • * (Excluding Mailing and Handling)

Abstract

SHS investigation development is considered from the geographical and historical viewpoint. 3 stages are described. Within Stage 1 the work was carried out in the Department of the Institute of Chemical Physics in Chernogolovka where the scientific discovery had been made. At Stage 2 the interest to SHS arose in different cities and towns of the former USSR. Within Stage 3 SHS entered the international scene. Now SHS processes and products are being studied in more than 50 countries.

Abstract

In this text, we look at several mathematical models that have been constructed during the present pandemic to address different issues of importance to public health policies about epidemic scenarios and their causes. We start by briefly reviewing the most basic properties of the classic Kermack-McKendrick model and then proceed to look at some generalizations and their applications to contact structures, co-circulation of viral infections, growth patterns of epidemic curves, characterization of probability distributions and passage times necessary to parametrize the compartments that are added to the basic Kermack-McKendrick model. All of these examples revolve around the idea that a system of differential equations is constructed from a specific epidemiological problem, has as a central and main theoretical and conceptual support the epidemiological, medical, and biological context that motivates its construction and analysis.

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