Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Author(s): Dawei Han

DOI: 10.2174/978160805047511101010034

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Frequency Curve Fitting

Pp: 34-43 (10)

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* (Excluding Mailing and Handling)

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Abstract

SHS investigation development is considered from the geographical and historical viewpoint. 3 stages are described. Within Stage 1 the work was carried out in the Department of the Institute of Chemical Physics in Chernogolovka where the scientific discovery had been made. At Stage 2 the interest to SHS arose in different cities and towns of the former USSR. Within Stage 3 SHS entered the international scene. Now SHS processes and products are being studied in more than 50 countries.

Abstract

Floods are complex and flood records tend to have errors. The two important points in flood frequency analysis are ‘1) All flood frequency curves are wrong, but some are useful; 2) ‘All data are wrong, but some are useful.’ The uncertainties with the frequency curve fitting can be reduced by various techniques to avoid overfitting and under-fitting.

Keywords:

cross validation, over-fitting, under-fitting, expected probability

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