Abstract

Background: Whether in the short, medium or long term, forecasting electricity consumption has always been an essential study area. In the literature, many methods are used for future forecasting and are being improved daily to achieve better results.

Objective: The main objective of this study is to make the most accurate long-term electricity consumption forecast, which is the basis for optimal future planning in the energy sector. Electric consumption forecasting is performed regionally since planning at the regional level is essential for more precise planning.

Methods: There may be different variables that affect electricity consumption. This study ex-tends the multivariate grey model for electricity consumption prediction to intuitionistic trian-gular fuzzy numbers for nine regions. In the grey model, population, export, and gross domes-tic product variables were used as independent variables, and future predictions for these vari-ables were obtained through the univariate intuitionistic triangular fuzzy grey model.

Results: The results of the proposed method are compared with those of the classical univari-ate grey model, univariate intuitionistic triangular fuzzy grey model, and classical multivariate grey model. The results show that the error values of the proposed method are lower.

Conclusion: The study contributes to the development of the grey model. More accurate pre-diction results are obtained with the proposed method compared to similar methods.

Keywords: Electricity consumption, forecasting, multivariate grey model, intuitionistic fuzzy set, regional forecast, Türkiye.